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Why Stocks May Surge By Year's End, Defying Bears: Bank of America
Posted on Thursday November 15, 2018
Bank of America Merrill Lynch seems unusually bullish these days despite a series of major market sell-offs and mounting uncertainty about economic growth and corporate earnings. The firm's forecast calls for stocks to rally through the end of the year, although the gains may be accompanied by increased volatility.
Why Stocks Are Poised for 12-Month Rally
Posted on Wednesday November 07, 2018
An oft-repeated maxim is that the stock market hates uncertainty, and a major cause for uncertainty has been resolved, given that the U.S. midterm congressional elections are now behind us. In Tuesday's midterm vote, returns indicate that the Democrats won a majority in the House while the Republicans held their majority in the Senate. But the Yardeni Reseach study—and other studies—show that stocks have risen in the 12 months after every midterm election from 1954 through 2014, a span of six decades, without exception, and regardless of which party posted gains.
Why The Stock Market's Sell-Off Has Only Begun: Morgan Stanley
Posted on Tuesday October 23, 2018
While many investors expect, or at least hope, that stocks will rebound from their recent selloffs, Morgan Stanley has a pessimistic view, seeing yet more declines ahead. Their latest Weekly Warm-Up report asserts as much: "we don't think the correction is done yet. "Our view has been that 300-325 [basis points] is a fair level of the ERP given the current level of rates and our views of the cycle," the report asserts.
2 Hidden Economic Threats That Could Tank the Market
Posted on Monday October 22, 2018
The stock market has staged a partial rebound from its recent pullback, but Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer (CIO) at The Leuthold Group, sees "overheat pressure" building in the economy that, in turn, poses a severe risk for stock prices. Meanwhile, in a recent report entitled "No Margin For Error," Morgan Stanley indicates that a number of macro forces are exerting downward pressure on corporate profit margins, and this ultimately means downward pressure on stock prices. Among those forces are the two big threats that Paulsen sees, inflation that raises business costs in general and wage growth in particular.